If you’ve closely followed the debate among Democrats over whether to launch an impeachment inquiry on President Trump, chances are that you’ve heard this number: 19.
As many who support impeachment hearings have pointed out, in early 1973, Gallup polling showed that only 19 percent of Americans supported removing President Richard M. Nixon. By the summer of 1974, when Nixon resigned, support had climbed to the high 50s — which illustrates that on impeachment, public opinion can be moved in a big way, including, presumably, on Trump.
I’ve obtained from Gallup a detailed partisan breakdown of these numbers, and they tell a more complicated story. In some ways, this breakdown lends even more support to the idea that public sentiment can be shifted on impeachment, though there are still cautionary notes.
As Democrats return from recess, they are puzzling over how to draw more public attention to special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s findings, which could build support for an impeachment inquiry.
Democratic leaders continue to insist that they must win the public over first. Rep. James Clyburn (S.C.), the No. 3 House Democrat, told CNN: “We think that we have to bring the public along.”
So now let’s look at what happened with Nixon in that regard. Gallup provided me with this breakdown of four of its national polls on impeachment (the question wording shifts midway through):
As you can see, among Republicans, support for impeachment or removal moved from 6 percent in June of 1973, to 31 percent in August 1974.
Among independents, those numbers moved from 18 percent to 55 percent. And among Democrats, they moved from 27 percent to 71 percent.
In some ways, this offers more grist for believing that public opinion can be shifted again. Note that the shift was more substantial among independents, eventually amounting to a solid majority, than it was among Republicans.
Right now, independents are a key reason public support for impeachment is low. A recent Post-ABC News poll, which found that only 37 percent of Americans support beginning impeachment proceedings while 56 percent oppose it, also found that among independents, those numbers are 36 percent to 59 percent.
The Gallup numbers on Nixon suggest that big shifts among independents are possible and show that a substantially larger percentage of independents now support impeachment hearings than at the outset in Nixon’s day.