From its founding through the 19th century, the United States was protected externally – and more or less unprotected internally. A pair of oceans distanced the nation from the bloody intrigue of the Old World, while high tariffs shielded its nascent manufacturing economy from British encroachment. On the inside, however, it was the literal and figurative wild west: a society shockingly vulnerable to the turbulence and injustices of a rapidly expanding market.
As the second Trump administration takes shape, it seems Americans might be headed back to that 19th-century order, with all the dynamism – and risk and human tragedy – it would entail. “External protectionism, domestic libertarianism” is the Trump II vision in its purest form, as articulated by Donald Trump himself and, especially, the tech barons led by Elon Musk who bankrolled his campaign.
Why might this vision be attractive to the non-college majority that handed Trump a decisive victory? Because it tackles two of the chief means by which large employers have undermined wage-earners’ security and bargaining power: namely, offshoring and the mass importation of unskilled workers from abroad. This appeals to workers, even as Trump II’s tycoon-driven libertarianism is likely to exacerbate the internal disparities generated by the unrestrained market.
“A band of small-government revolutionaries will save our nation,” said the entrepreneur and Trump ally Vivek Ramaswamy on 11 November. Picking up the phrase, Musk enthused about “ensuring that maniacally dedicated small-government revolutionaries join this administration!” (Yes, the same Musk who owes much of his success to billions in government subsidies and contracts.)
Trump himself tapped into the spirit of the 19th century with his suggestion that revenue from tariffs might replace income tax. That was indeed how things worked from the founding until 1913 (except during the Civil War, when Congress instituted a temporary income tax). Replacing tax revenue with tariffs today isn’t workable, given the hugely expanded size and scope of the government. And jacking up tariffs high enough to cover the cost would discourage most nations from trading with the US in the first place, thus creating a drastic revenue shortfall.
These ideas will meet fierce resistance from various entrenched interests and the administrative apparatus built up since the 19th century. And, if we’re lucky, the worst of the libertarian model’s ramifications for labour and consumers will be mitigated by Trump himself – who retains populist impulses, especially on social-insurance programmes – and by his vice-president, JD Vance, whose worldview is inspired by Catholic social teaching, even as he also has a foot in the ultra-libertarian tech right.