As dozens of American cities erupted in violence following the arrest of a Minneapolis police officer charged with killing an unarmed black man, President Donald Trump—after spending a period of time in a White House bunker—emerged on Monday evening to promise the American people: “I am your president of law and order.” The words deliberately evoked Richard Nixon, who in the turmoil of 1968 won the presidency on an explicit “law-and-order” platform.
Many commentators have worried aloud that these “1968 flashbacks” might work to Trump’s advantage. Trump, according to conventional wisdom, might recoup losses with the same white suburban voters who have abandoned the Republican Party over the course of his presidency. “Historically, riots benefit the GOP, not the Democrats,” the thinking goes.
The pundits are right: 2020 is shaping up a lot like 1968. But a closer look at the history tells us it’s not Donald Trump and the Republicans who stand to benefit from the unrest.
Nixon’s law-and-order message wasn’t just about urban riots. It was a repudiation of the governing party for its alleged part in the general unraveling of peace, prosperity and order. The late 1960s brought mounting inflation and racial unrest, campus uprisings, a sharp spike in crime, an emerging sexual revolution and court-mandated expansion of personal liberties—all set against the backdrop of a controversial war in Vietnam that the government seemed unable to win or exit. The incumbent president, Lyndon B. Johnson, and by extension, his vice president, Hubert Humphrey, had presided over the very social unraveling that many voters were eager to reverse. This was Nixon’s opening—his appeal to swing voters, especially.
Now, as in 1968, the violence of the past several days has revealed a broader pattern of social and political dissolution. Unemployment stands at 14.7 percent. Over 100,000 Americans lie dead of Covid, with no end in sight to the pandemic. Americans are bitterly divided by race, ethnicity and partisan affiliation. A foreign nation, Russia, has all but declared asymmetrical warfare against the United States. What the journalist Walter Lippmann said in 1968—“the world has never been more disorderly within memory of living man”—might credibly be said today. One key difference: Today, the candidate demanding “law and order” is the one who couldn’t preserve it.
Like Johnson before him, Trump’s is the party in power—the party that has failed to provide peace, prosperity and social order. Republicans control the executive branch, the Senate and the Supreme Court. They alone own the chaos, rancor and instability that many voters have come to abhor and dread.
Trump campaigns like Richard Nixon and George Wallace, but in reality, he is Lyndon B. Johnson: a man who has lost control of the machine.