This is the batting lineup of the ’93 Blue Jays, who beat the Philadelphia Phillies on Joe Carter’s famous game-winning home run in Game 6 of the World Series.
Carter was the classic cleanup hitter of that era — a pure slugger who didn’t walk much, or even hit for a very high average, but could hit the ball out of the yard.
He was joined in the batting order by other archetypal players for their lineup slot, from Rickey Henderson (widely regarded as the greatest leadoff man ever) and speedster Devon White. In the middle of the order were all-around hitters Robbie Alomar, John Olerud, and Paul Molitor.
For most of baseball history, there was a set pattern of roles in the batting lineup, passed down to managers through decades of experience. But those rules are changing as baseball evolves, especially with analytics increasingly guiding decisions. The 1993 Blue Jays might not look the same in 2024.
We rated each player relative to the league on a 0-5 scale in four major categories: batting average, power, walks, and speed. We grouped players by their lineup slot, and looked for the traits that each spot had in common — and how that has changed over time. Those trends allowed us to then predict where a batter with a particular set of skills might tend to bat, depending on the era.
We put that concept to work by estimating how Toronto's old-school lineup order might change if they played today. Here’s what the hypothetical “2024” Toronto Blue Jays might look like.
Today, teams prioritize better overall hitters in the leadoff spot, making Hall of Famer Alomar Toronto’s most likely No. 1 hitter. Perhaps surprisingly, Henderson and White shift lower, as teams have become more willing to bat their stronger hitters deeper in the order.
Olerud and Molitor move up due to their all-around skills, and Tony Fernandez assumes an important role in the modern analytical lineup, manning the No. 2 hole.
And Carter, who would likely be penciled in further down in the lineup, may never have gotten the chance to hit that iconic HR from the cleanup spot.
That’s just one example. Plenty of other teams and players would be known for different spots in the order if they plied their trade in today’s more analytically oriented era of baseball. So let’s run through the old and new rules for building a lineup, using players who best typified each slot then and now.